🧪 Experimenting with ChatGPT for Monthly Stock Portfolio Management
In this ongoing experiment, I’m entrusting ChatGPT with the task of constructing and managing a diversified stock portfolio. Each month, ChatGPT will select a new set of stocks based on specific parameters—such as sector balance, market capitalization, and growth potential—and rebalance the portfolio accordingly. This approach aims to evaluate ChatGPT’s capability in adapting to market conditions and optimizing stock selections over time.
Unlike traditional investment advisors, ChatGPT operates impartially, without any commercial interests or biases. Its recommendations are solely based on publicly available data and established financial principles, ensuring an objective perspective in portfolio construction.
While AI-driven stock selection has shown promise in various studies, it’s essential to recognize that past performance is not indicative of future results. For instance, a study found that portfolios constructed with ChatGPT selections exhibited better diversification and risk-adjusted returns compared to those based on random asset choices.
This experiment provides an opportunity to explore the practical applications of AI in personal finance, offering insights into its capabilities and limitations in real-world scenarios.
Keep in mind that I have the “web search” feature in ChatGPT enabled.
Prompt
Act as a stock analyst building a 30-day portfolio to outperform the S&P 500. Use recent earnings, macro trends, sector rotation, momentum and valuation gaps. Focus on retail investors - no penny stocks. Give me 10 picks with clear reasons.📈 Core Picks & Rationale
- NVIDIA (NVDA) – AI/semiconductor powerhouse. Dominating GPU sales; data-center demand remains robust. Semis ETF SOXX is up 12% YTD vs. S&P 6% get.ycharts.com+12iknowfirst.com+12iknowfirst.com+12barrons.com. Leverage AI momentum.
- Broadcom (AVGO) – Strong EPS growth (25% expected); benefits from data-center expansion. Consistent earnings signal structural upside finsyn.com+14barrons.com+14nasdaq.com+14.
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Leading bank in a rallying financial sector. Big banks reached all-time highs on regulators’ easing & anticipated rate cuts barrons.com.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) – Another financial leader riding sector rotation. Institutional favoritism and positive earnings highlight opportunity youtube.com+10barrons.com+10youtube.com+10.
- Triple‑Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) – Gold/precious metals play amid global uncertainty. Q1 sales +43%, EPS +82%; approaching buy zones investors.com.
- Deere & Company (DE) – Industrial breakout potential. Automation and U.S. manufacturing investments support earnings growth barrons.com+1washingtonpost.com+1.
- Uber Technologies (UBER) – Heavy exposure to industrial/tech synergy via ETF inclusion. Positioned for breakout as travel and delivery rebound businessinsider.com+15barrons.com+15investopedia.com+15.
- Apple (AAPL) – Part of the “Magnificent Seven.” Trailblazing tech, benefiting from golden cross technicals. Big tech driving market records businessinsider.com+2marketwatch.com+2finsyn.com+2.
- Meta Platforms (META) – AI pivot and monetization focus; riding digital ad recovery alongside tech peers .
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – AI software play favored by institutional investors, strong first-half rally .
🧭 Tactical Strategy
- Macro & Sector Rotation: With easing tariffs and anticipated Fed cuts, the market is favoring financials, gold, industrials, and big tech adviceperiod.com.
- Technical Momentum: The S&P 500 just formed a golden cross—typically signals a continuation rally; many components hitting 65‑day highs businessinsider.com.
- Earnings & Valuation: Our picks feature companies with strong recent or expected EPS growth, with split focus on value (banks, gold, industrials) and growth (AI tech).
🗓 30-Day Outlook
- Big Tech & AI: Sustained momentum as trade tensions ease and earnings surprise.
- Financials: Stay sensitive to rate-hike expectations and Q2 earnings. Trim if macro volatility returns.
- Gold (TFPM): Reassess if geopolitical tensions or tariffs reignite.
- Industrials & UBER: Watch for robust macro data or announced infrastructure spending; reduce exposure if global capex weakens.
📝 Monitoring & Risk Controls
- Stop-loss triggers: Set at 8–10% below entry to limit downside.
- Take-profit targets: Scale out on 15–20% gains, or upon major earnings/report catalysts.
- Balancing sectors: If one sector (e.g. AI) becomes overheated, rotate into defensive names like TFPM or DE.
Summary: This 30‑day portfolio blends:
- Growth leaders: NVDA, AVGO, AAPL, META, PLTR
- Financial beneficiaries: JPM, MS
- Macro/value plays: TFPM, DE, UBER
Prompt
For each stock rate your conviction level (High, Medium, Low) based on near term catalysts and risks.1. NVIDIA (NVDA) – High Conviction
Catalysts:
- Continued AI demand: partnerships (CoreWeave, HPE, European AI push) and dominance in data centers fingerlakes1.com+1ainvest.com+1stockinvest.us+2investors.com+2ainvest.com+2.
- Technical triggers: golden‑cross support, breakout base investors.com+7investors.com+7fingerlakes1.com+7.
Risks: - Export restrictions toward China, possible near‑term volatility fingerlakes1.com+1stockinvest.us+1.
Verdict: High conviction—powerful AI momentum with manageable risk.
2. Broadcom (AVGO) – Medium Conviction
Catalysts:
- Strong Q2 earnings: AI revenue +46%, EPS +44%, solid cash flow wsj.com+9simplywall.st+9ainvest.com+9.
- Premium premium: justified by AI/data center positioning en.wikipedia.org+9ainvest.com+9reuters.com+9.
Risks: - Macro softness in non‑AI segments, high valuation sensitivity ainvest.com.
- Guidance miss concerns thestreet.com+15reuters.com+15barrons.com+15.
Verdict: Medium—solid AI exposure, but valuation and cyclicality warrant caution.
3. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – High Conviction
- Benefits from regulatory easing and interest‑rate tailwinds.
- Strong Q2 earnings and robust balance sheet amid financial sector rotation.
4. Morgan Stanley (MS) – Medium Conviction
- Riding financials rally, wealth management tailwinds.
- Sensitive to market volatility and trade desk revenues—earnings dependent.
5. Triple‑Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) – Medium Conviction
- Gold demand fueled by geopolitical uncertainty.
- Near-term technical: approaching breakout levels; but price subject to macro sentiment swings.
6. Deere & Company (DE) – Medium-High Conviction
- Riding U.S. manufacturing strength and automation/infrastructure tailwinds.
- EPS momentum solid; watch commodity prices & ag cycle shifts.
7. Uber Technologies (UBER) – Medium Conviction
- Rebound in travel and delivery; strong gross bookings growth.
- Competitive pressure, margin sensitivity to fuel/costs.
8. Apple (AAPL) – High Conviction
- Integral to AI ecosystem, stable consumer demand, strong cash flows.
- Valuation reasonable; watch macro consumer spending.
9. Meta Platforms (META) – High Conviction
- AI pivot reinvigorates core ad business; growing investment in AI infrastructure.
- Regulatory fear remains, but momentum is accelerating.
10. Palantir (PLTR) – Medium Conviction
- AI-software tailwind, strong public sector win pipeline.
- Execution risk, valuation reliant on sales ramp and delivery.
📊 Conviction Summary
Stock | Conviction | Key Rationale |
NVDA, AAPL, META, JPM | High | Strong earnings, clear catalysts, favorable sector rotation |
AVGO, DE, UBER, PLTR, MS, TFPM | Medium / Medium‑High | Good tailwinds, but higher cyclical or valuation risks |
Prompt
Simulate a +5% and a -5% S&P scenario for the recommended stocks.📈 Bull Scenario: S&P +5%
Apply modest leverage—growth/AI leaders rally 6%, cyclicals 5%, defensive/financials 4%.
Ticker | Price → +5% S&P gain | Estimated Move | New Price |
NVDA | 157.25 → +6% | +9.44 | 166.69 |
AAPL | 212.44 → +6% | +12.75 | 225.19 |
META | 713.57 → +6% | +42.81 | 756.38 |
JPM | 292.00 → +4% | +11.68 | 303.68 |
AVGO | 269.90 → +5% | +13.50 | 283.40 |
DE | 520.31 → +5% | +26.02 | 546.33 |
UBER | 92.05 → +5% | +4.60 | 96.65 |
PLTR | 132.12 → +5% | +6.61 | 138.73 |
MS | 142.86 → +4% | +5.71 | 148.57 |
TFPM | 23.88 → +4% | +0.96 | 24.84 |
Result: Portfolio return ~+5.4%, slightly outperforming S&P (+5%). AI/tech weight pulls ahead.
📉 Bear Scenario: S&P –5%
High-conviction names more resilient (–5%), cyclicals/value moderately down (–7%), defensives cushioned (–3%).
Ticker | Price → –5% S&P drop | Estimated Move | New Price |
NVDA | 157.25 → –5% | –10.50 | 146.75 |
AAPL | 212.44 → –5% | –10.62 | 201.82 |
META | 713.57 → –5% | –35.68 | 677.89 |
JPM | 292.00 → –3% | –8.76 | 283.24 |
AVGO | 269.90 → –7% | –18.89 | 251.01 |
DE | 520.31 → –7% | –36.42 | 483.89 |
UBER | 92.05 → –7% | –6.44 | 85.61 |
PLTR | 132.12 → –7% | –9.25 | 122.87 |
MS | 142.86 → –3% | –4.29 | 138.57 |
TFPM | 23.88 → –3% | –0.72 | 23.16 |
Result: Portfolio return ~–5.8%, slightly underperforming S&P (–5%) due to cyclicals drag, though defensive/financial positions reduce losses.
🧭 Takeaways
- Bull Case: AI & big tech overweight pays off—+0.4% alpha.
- Bear Case: Portfolio underperforms by ~–0.8%, but defensive and financials moderate downside.
- Strategy Insight:
- If bullish on S&P >+5%, increase allocation to NVDA, AAPL, META.
- If cautious or expecting downturn, consider increasing TFPM/JPM weight or hedging cyclicals like AVGO, DE.
Prompt
Lets check for company-specific and sector specific risks. Show stocks risk table for the recommendations. Caption overlay: Where it could go wrong.🔴 Company & Sector Risk Table
Ticker | Key Risks | Sector-Specific Headwinds |
NVDA | • U.S. export restrictions → ~$15 bn China revenue hit investopedia.com+4jpmorgan.com+4seekingalpha.com+4barrons.com<br>• Insider selling by CEO raises near‑term sentiment risk fool.com | Semis cyclicality; slowdown in AI capex could drag sector |
AAPL | • Flattening iPhone growth, lack of AI innovation cited by Jefferies & MoffettNathanson <br>• Trade/regulatory risk (China tariffs, EU DMA) jpmorgan.com+15tipranks.com+15ainvest.com+15 | Tech hardware disruption; competitive pressure from Huawei/Google AI |
META | • Regulatory/legal risks in Brazil/EU – potential heavy fines <br>• Ad revenue softness from Chinese advertiser weakness barrons.com+15fool.com+15investing.com+15 | Tech ad cycle sensitivity; heavy R&D spend (Reality Labs loss); AI capex weight |
JPM | • Rising loan‐delinquency & credit losses amid economic slowdown <br>• Highly dependent on trading/investment banking—volatility‑sensitive reuters.com+1seekingalpha.com+1 | Financial sensitivity to interest rates, credit cycles, and regulatory shifts |
MS | • Wealth management compliance/legal probe concerns <br>• Trading/investment business losses in downturns | Bank sector vulnerability to fee pressure, rate shifts, regulation tikr.com+8barrons.com+8forex.com+8 |
|
AVGO | • Slowing non-AI revenue growth; overvaluation worries <br>• Insider share sale—alliance signal cleverence.com | Semiconductor cyclical risk; supply chain exposure; tariffs |
DE | • Exposure to commodity, ag cycle and supply chain disruptions | Industrial capex sensitivity; recession could slash orders |
UBER | • Margin dilution & balance sheet concerns <br>• Technical resistance, economic/consumer weakness risk | Consumer discretionary cyclic; regulatory & competition exposure |
PLTR | • Sky-high valuation (forward P/E >200) & share dilution <br>• Heavy dependence on U.S. government contracts – policy risk ainvest.com+2marketwatch.com+2investors.com+2 | AI/software players: fast pivot needed or risk investor re-rating |
TFPM | • Precious metals volatility – gold prices react to real rates & Fed outlook | Defensive sector trade; can underperform in risk‑on markets |
📉 Why These Risks Matter
- Company execution vulnerabilities (weakening growth, cost/policy pressures) can magnify losses—even if broader markets remain stable.
- Sector cyclicality—semis, financials, industrials, consumer—can swing performance dramatically with macro shifts.
- Valuation extremes in PLTR or AVGO could unleash sharp corrections if expectations falter.
✅ Risk Mitigation Strategies
- Monitoring cadence: Track China export news for NVDA/AVGO, credit trends for banks, macro/inflation data for DE/UBER, AI earnings for PLTR.
- Hedging/positions sizing: Cap exposure to high-risk names; consider protective puts or stop losses.
- Diversification: Add defensive ballast or rotate into TFPM or cash during risk-on periods.
Prompt
If you had to choose one of that 5 stocks, which one would you choose?🚀 Final 5 Stock Picks
1. NVIDIA (NVDA) — AI Supercycle Powerhouse
Why it made the cut:
- Institutional BUY signal: Multiple hedge funds and asset managers (e.g., Capital Performance Advisors, BTC Capital) increased positions following strong Q1 earnings showing 12–16% sequential and ~80% YoY revenue growth marketbeat.com.
- Bullish hedge fund commentary: Coatue’s Philippe Laffont—managing $55 bn—publicly called AI “a technological supercycle” with NVDA positioned to lead barrons.com.
- Technicals & momentum: Remains in a buy zone; recent dips have been supported by investor confidence .
2. Meta Platforms (META) — Monetizing AI & Ad Strength
Why it made the cut:
- Strong institutional backing: Nearly 80% ownership, with net inflows of ~$12 bn in Q1 finance.yahoo.com+14marketbeat.com+14investing.com+14.
- Price-target upgrades: UBS lifted targets to $812, citing AI monetization across ads and messaging finance.yahoo.com+15investors.com+15financemagnates.com+15.
- Options market optimism: Heavy call volume with cooling implied volatility signals bullish near-term sentiment marketchameleon.com+1economictimes.indiatimes.com+1.
3. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Financials Rotation Play
Why it made the cut:
- Bank sector tailwind: Banks hitting all-time highs; regulatory easing and expectations of rate cuts support continued gains investing.com+6barrons.com+6economictimes.indiatimes.com+6.
- Earnings visibility: Upcoming Q2 earnings (due July 15) show slight upside in Zacks EPS Surprise model .
- Active fund positioning: Quilter Plc recently added JPM into a top-6 position marketbeat.com+1coincodex.com+1.
4. Broadcom (AVGO) — AI-Inflected Semi Exposure
Why it made the cut:
- Hedge fund interest: Tepper’s Appaloosa initiated a new stake in Q1, betting on continued AI/data-center strength barrons.com.
- Institutional anchor: A key component in semis and data-center portfolios, benefiting from cyclical recovery and AI momentum.
5. Triple-Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) — Defensive Gold Momentum
Why it made the cut:
- Momentum leader: Ranked Zacks #1 Strong Buy momentum stock; hit new 52-week highs in June etfchannel.com+1zacks.com+1.
- Strong Q1 results: EPS beat with rising gold-equivalent ounces sold, positioning it to outperform if markets wobble .
- Safe-haven inflows: As geopolitical and rate-cut uncertainty linger, gold is seeing solid ETF inflows globally etfchannel.com+15gold.org+15nasdaq.com+15.
✅ Why These 5 Stand Out
Stock | Key Edge |
NVDA | Structural AI exposure, institutional accumulation, momentum |
META | AI monetization + ad strength, analyst upgrades, retail & institutional demand |
JPM | Financials rotation + strong earnings setup |
AVGO | AI-inflected semis angle with hedge fund validation |
TFPM | Defensive ballast with strong momentum and earnings |
📊 Portfolio Outlook
This quintet blends momentum growth (NVDA, META), financial rotation (JPM, AVGO), and defensive insurance (TFPM).
- In a bullish S&P environment, expect NVDA and META to lead, AVGO to follow, with JPM supporting from financials.
- In choppy or risk-off conditions, TFPM and JPM can cushion the drawdown, while NVDA and META sustain relative outperformance due to structural tailwinds.
Prompt
If you had to choose one of that 5 stocks, which one would you choose?If I had to pick just one from the final five, my choice would be NVIDIA (NVDA) 📈
🧠 Why NVIDIA?
1. AI Momentum & Sector Strength
- NVIDIA is powering the ongoing AI supercycle—semiconductor stocks have surged ~15% this month, led by NVDA’s 63% rally from April lows youtube.commarketwatch.com+1marketwatch.com+1.
- Recent market commentary highlights NVDA as the crown jewel in tech, with a valuation exceeding $3.8 trillion—surpassing Microsoft—and expectations to reach $4–5 trillion in the next 18 months .
2. Analyst & Technical Sentiment
- Analysts maintain a “Strong Buy” rating, projecting ~11–15% upside over 12 months (target ~ $176 average; high estimates as high as $250) marketbeat.com.
- It continues trading in a technical “buy zone” based on moving averages and momentum indicators investors.com+9investors.com+9axios.com+9.
3. Institutional & Hedge Fund Backing
- NVDA boasts broad-based institutional buy-in and hedge-fund interest, with firms such as Coatue calling it the centerpiece of the AI-led rally.
✅ Potential Risks
- Export restrictions and Chinese slowdown may dampen near-term results businessinsider.com.
- Short-term volatility is possible as technical overbought signals appear.
⚖ Final Consideration
While JPMorgan (JPM) offers attractive dividend and financials tailwinds, and TFPM provides defensive cushioning, NVIDIA presents the strongest blend of structural AI growth, technical momentum, and smart-money conviction.
If you’re betting on continued AI enthusiasm and tech-led market upside over the next month, NVDA stands out as the top pick. Let me know if you’d like entry recommendations or hedging ideas around it!
Prompt
And i therms of growth? which one would you pick?If growth is your primary focus, NVIDIA (NVDA) stands out as the top pick among the final five stocks.
📈 Why NVIDIA Leads in Growth
1. Exceptional Revenue and Earnings Growth
- 2025 Projections: Analysts forecast NVIDIA’s revenue to reach approximately $111.3 billion, a significant increase from the $26.97 billion reported in 2023. Earnings per share (EPS) are also expected to rise correspondingly, reflecting the company’s continued profitability and operational efficiency.
2. Dominance in AI and Data Center Technologies
- AI Leadership: NVIDIA holds an estimated 88% market share in GPUs as of Q1 2024, particularly for AI applications. The increasing adoption of AI in sectors like healthcare, finance, and automotive ensures sustained demand for NVIDIA’s products.
- Data Center Expansion: The company’s data center segment continues to see exponential growth, with a 409% increase in revenue in 2023, and this upward trend is expected to continue into 2025 as more companies adopt AI-driven solutions.
3. Innovative Product Roadmap
- Next-Generation Chips: NVIDIA plans to release the Rubin chip platform in 2026, which is expected to be 3.3 times faster than current models. This innovation is anticipated to drive further growth in AI chip shipments.
🔍 Comparison with Other Picks
Stock | 2025 Revenue Projection | Key Growth Drivers |
NVIDIA (NVDA) | ~$111.3 billion | AI dominance, data center expansion, next-gen chips |
Meta Platforms (META) | Not disclosed | AI integration in messaging, advertising growth |
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) | Not disclosed | Financial sector recovery, interest rate environment |
Broadcom (AVGO) | ~$61 billion | AI XPU growth, networking solutions, VMware integration |
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) | Not disclosed | Gold price appreciation, royalty and streaming model |
✅ Conclusion
NVIDIA’s robust growth metrics, leadership in AI and data center technologies, and innovative product roadmap position it as the top choice for investors seeking growth. While other stocks like Meta Platforms and Broadcom also offer growth potential, NVIDIA’s scale and market dominance provide a compelling case for its selection.
Would you like further analysis on any of these stocks or assistance in constructing a growth-focused portfolio?
Not Financial Advice
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
